CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 08/07 - 06Z WED 09/07 2003
ISSUED: 07/07 17:57Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across north-central Europe.

General thunderstorms are forecast across north Spain.

General thunderstorms are forecast across the Mediterranean and eastern Europe.

SYNOPSIS

Deep quasistationary closed upper low covering eastern Europe/western Russia ... with the associated extensive SFC low pressure system residing over E Europe/W Russia. Over W and central Europe .. slack large-scale high pressure system is present and is forecast to persist throughout the period.

DISCUSSION

......
Organized severe potential will be quite low during this forecast period ... Highest CAPE's appear to be present over the Mediterranean regions with a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ... and within a plume of wrap-around moisture which is progged to affect the very NE portions of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening ... where MLCAPE's up to 1000 J/kg will likely be present. However ... deep-layer shear across these regions will only be on the order of 20 to 30 knots ... and although quite gusty winds along with small hail may well occur ... organized severe TSTM threat is quite small. Shear profiles will be somewhat stronger over Romania and the Balkan states ... but poor thermodynamic profiles should limit severe threat there.

Altogether ... a brief and isolated marginally severe wind/hail event cannot be excluded within the GEN TSTM regions ... but airmass will have to await major modifications to become supportive to organized severe storms ... and these modifications are not expected during the FCST period.

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